Where is the UAE islands dispute heading?  

 25 September 2008

 Nicole Stracke
Researcher
Security and the Terrorism Department

Iran's decision to open two new offices for maritime rescue and ship registration on the occupied island of Abu Musa in August 2008 sparked immediate criticism from the UAE government, the GCC states and in the wider Arab world. Abu Dhabi called it a clear "contravention of the 1971 Memorandum of Understanding with Iran" and sent a formal protest to the UN secretary general. The GCC states expressed their support for the UAE and issued a statement condemning the Iranian action, demanding the removal of its "illegal installations" and urging Iran to respect UAE's sovereignty. During a press interview, the GCC secretary general even went a step further and drew parallels between the Israeli behavior in occupied Arab lands and the Iranian conduct over the UAE islands.

The Iranian action may have come as a surprise to many observers who had expected Tehran to lie low at a time when it was faced with international pressure over the true nature of its nuclear program and over the legitimacy of the program in view of UN Security Council resolutions. One would have also thought that Iran would refrain from provoking its Gulf and Arab neighbors as it is in need of regional support. However, a second look shows that for Iran, the decision to establish administrative offices in Abu Musa is a calculated risk and probably, from the Iranian leadership's view, one that is worthwhile taking.

Earlier, the UAE restated its position on the question of the islands, this time publicly and more critically. In a speech  by UAE State Minister for Federal National Council Affairs and Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Dr. Anwar Gargash delivered in Tehran before the meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement last June, the UAE minister firmly called on Iran to adhere to the basic principles of non-alignment which required a peaceful settlement of disputes, urging Tehran to respond positively to the UAE's "peaceful initiatives" and  settle the UAE-Iran islands dispute through direct bilateral negotiations or by agreeing to refer the case to the International Court of Justice. This was a surprisingly outspoken statement from the traditionally cautious UAE. The fact that it was delivered in Iran and before an international gathering was significant and unquestionably displeased the Iranian leadership. The Iranian reaction came indirectly; without referring to the UAE Minister's statement, the Iranian government officials intensified their propaganda reiterating the claim that the islands are Iranian and there is no need for negotiations or ICJ intervention. In fact, Tehran did not even recognize the dispute, calling it simply a "misunderstanding."

The decision to open new administrative offices at Abu Musa is a continuation of the Iranian policy of gradual and systematic colonization that has been in play since the late 1970s. This policy has manifested itself in the form of a number of unilateral decisions taken by the Iranian leadership in clear violation of the 1971 MoU. The Iranian action aims to change the status quo of the islands. Iran calculates that once it lays down the foundation for its authority and control and changes the demographic set up of the islands, it will be able to change the reality on the ground and strengthen the Iranian bargaining position when the time comes to negotiate the issue of sovereignty over the islands. Changing the demographic set-up and expanding control is a common tactic employed by  most occupying powers, as Israel has done over the years when it built new settlements on Palestinian land in the occupied West bank. Moreover, by establishing the offices, the current Iranian government has tried to reinforce its credibility among hardliners. A  hardline attitude on the issue of the islands  is likely to enhance the government's popularity at home, as different Iranian governments have worked hard to convince the people that the islands are an integral part of the state's territory. Tehran also aims to prove to both its domestic and regional audience that it is able to stand up to regional and international pressure.

In dealing with the islands issue the UAE faces a major dilemma. On the one hand, the UAE cannot consider the military option as a means to reclaim its sovereign right over its occupied islands; the UAE government has always emphasized the need to settle this dispute diplomatically. On the other hand, the UAE is unable to generate the required diplomatic pressure to force the Iranian government to seriously consider the settlement of this dispute by political or legal means. Iran is taking full advantage of this situation and gradually increasing its illegal presence on and control over the islands. Iran is well aware of the fact that the GCC states lack a united strategy towards the islands issue. The GCC states, no doubt, have been issuing strong statements condemning Iran's moves, however, there has been no action beyond rhetoric.

Iran's violation of the 1971 Memorandum of Understanding, its current threats to close the Strait of Hormuz thus interfering with the freedom of navigation in the Gulf waters, or the recent Iranian hints about its ability to destabilize the Gulf states and intervene in their internal affairs – should all give reason for the regional states to counter Iran. Yet, the UAE as well as other GCC states have no mechanism in place to counter Iranian defiance or its aggressive behavior.  Ironically, Iran is still expecting the UAE to continuously follow its moderate policy and avoid a direct confrontation, and with good reason. Tehran understands that the UAE separates inconvenient issues such as the islands dispute from other parts of its foreign policy. Tehran assumes that sustaining a healthy business and economic relationship with Iran is one of the key elements of UAE foreign policy, and that UAE will not jeopardize its business relations with Iran over the islands issue and will refrain from a direct confrontation. The recent developments in the islands issue only reflect the present Iranian government policy, and we may expect more of this belligerent behavior in the near future.