Gulf Research Center (GRC)

Annual Workshop 2007

"Consequences of US Policy for the Gulf Region"

January 11-12, 2007

Park Hyatt Hotel, Dubai

Introduction:

Throughout 2006, the shortcomings of American foreign policy in the Gulf region have become blatantly apparent. Iraq has deteriorated to the point of open civil warfare, sectarian and ethnic conflict issues throughout the Middle East have been exacerbated, the determination of Iran to challenge the United States and its pursuit of a nuclear program continues without much restraint, the stability of Afghanistan hangs very much in the balance, and the threat of terrorism has not diminished to any significant degree. Slowly but surely, the Gulf region is not only faced with the possibility of further turmoil but with a complete lack of security. And of all this occurring while concerns over world energy supplies are once underscoring the region’s central strategic importance to the rest of the world.

Two things need to be underscored at the outset. For one, the relevance and importance of regional Gulf security to the international community is set to continue if not increase further. The central role of the Gulf will, however, not only be limited to issues of energy although given the current high price oil environment, additional instability in the region could produce negative economic consequences all around. Equally as important will be the political, strategic and even cultural impact that events in the region will have. Both Iran and Iraq are issues that will continue to dominate international headlines and events in these countries will directly reflect on the regional strategic environment. Sectarian and ethnic cleavages as well as issues of religious identity will consume equally much attention with Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey among others playing key roles. Overall, security will further be determined by a number of different policy issues – terrorism, weapons proliferation, border disputes etc. – with both regional and international dimensions.

Second, in all of these instances, the United States will remain the major actor. Therefore, while it is necessary to look at the components that make up the regional security environment, it is above all the actions and policies of the US that have had and will continue to have the greatest impact. Without understanding the rationale and objectives which underline US policy, it will not be possible to gain a thorough understanding of its possible intended and unintended consequences.

Moreover, as mentioned above, there are increasing doubts and criticism about the current directions of US policy in the Gulf and the wider region. The recently released Iraq Study group report underlined not only the “grave and deteriorating” situation in Iraq but made it clear that much of the declining security climate in the Middle East was directly linked to the inability of the US to put in place a proper strategy and the failure to recognize the linkages of events throughout the region. This can lead to the conclusion that whether in regard to Iraq, Iran, terrorism, proliferation or democratization, US policy has failed in its objectives with the result that the region is now faced with the grave consequences of this failure.

With this workshop, the GRC wants to look more deeply about the possible consequences of US shortcomings and draw some conclusions about the possible implications. Beginning with a look at the US objectives for the region and how these objectives have been translated into policy, the conference will also highlight the associated costs and ask the question whether on the present circumstances, a continuation on the present path is sustainable. This would then allow one to posit some scenarios at both the regional and international level as well as discuss in more detail the implications for Iraq, Iran, sectarian conflict, terrorism, US leadership and even international stability.