Sessions

The conference will consist of four sessions over one afternoon and one morning period. Each session will focus on a particular aspect of the common theme which will allow participants to draw conclusions about the impact of US policy on regional events. A final roundtable debate would try to come up with a set of policy recommendation to be implemented at both the regional and international level.

First Session: Analyzing the Objectives: US Policy Goals in the Gulf

• What have been the objectives of US policy in the Gulf region and how have these objectives been translated into practice?

• What has been the outcome of US policy in terms of the objectives that have been achieved? Can it be argued that the US was successful in some areas and not successful in other areas?
 
• In which areas has the United States completely failed to accomplish its objectives and where have the shortcomings been most apparent? Is this a case of complete failure at the regional level or can failure be isolated to specific policy areas?

• Has US policy over the past three decades actually contributed in any way towards the establishment of a stable order or have US policies had the complete opposite effect?

• In light of the mounting difficulties what has been the policy process within the United States to look at how objectives are being met and what, if any, adjustments might need to be made? Has there been any effective mechanism to undertake a required assessment of US regional policy?

• Can the United States regroup its objectives and turn its policy around? What will be the requirements if the US wants to achieve true progress towards meeting any of its declared objectives? 

Second Session: Calculating the Costs of US Gulf Policy

• What have been the overall costs of US policy in the region and from which angle should one examine this issue?

• In addition to the direct economic costs incurred by the United States, what have been the indirect costs in terms of US leadership in the region, the strategic shifts that have been initiated as a result and the political costs of US standing with some of its traditional allies in the region?

• Looked at from this holistic perspective, is a current course without changes sustainable? Even if changes are introduced, will these come quick enough to produce any noticeable reduction in costs? 

• What have been the costs as far as the regional states are concerned and what are their likely implications?

Third Session: Scenarios of Failure and its Implications: Iraq and the Regional Environment

• What has been the impact on Iraq and is there still a chance for a policy correction?

• Are there any realistic policy alternatives for the US as far as Iraq is concerned or is the damage done already too great?

• What is the impact of Iraq on the situation with regard to Iran, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Middle East?

• How are the rise in anti-Americanism and the corresponding decline in opinion about the US impacting on the regional relationship and what does this in particular mean for the GCC states?

• Does the current US approach towards the region and Iran heighten or lessen the chances of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and what would be the outcome of such a decision? Is there not also the possibility of a tacit understanding about the Iranian program which in turn would set into motion a regional arms race and a further deteriorating security climate?

• At what point does US policy become a direct danger to the internal stability of the GCC states and what can still be done to prevent this? What about the US policy on terrorism and the need of the GCC states to cooperate both regionally and with the US?
 
• How does US policy exacerbate sectarian tensions within the Gulf region and what are the relevant implications Is there a link between the US policy towards Iranian nuclear issue, and the recent GCC statement to initiate a nuclear research program for civilian purpose.

• Would a possible US withdrawal from Iraq have an impact on the US policy towards Iran in both a negative or positive sense?

Fourth Session: Scenarios of Failure and its Implications: The US and the International Environment

• How does the decline in the image of the US impact its overall leadership role and its function as the world’s sole superpower? 

• What are the possibilities of the current Bush administration undertaking any policy corrections or is this a case of too little too late? 

• What are the consequences in terms of international stability and has US policy also contributed to the failure of the United Nations in the region and beyond?

• Will a continuing deterioration in the regional climate increase the international competition in the region and therefore also increase the ideological divide among key world powers?

• Could a US (or international) initiative to adopt a UN Security Council resolution towards ending the external intervention in Iraq limit the influence of Iran and Syria and contribute to a stabilization of the region.

• How does US policy in the region influence the position/relations of Russia, China and EU towards Iraq and Iran?

Thursday, January 11, 2007:

14:15                Opening and Welcome

Abdulaziz Sager

Chairman

Gulf Research Center

14:30                Session 1: Analyzing the Objectives: US Policy

                         Goals in the Gulf

Chairperson:

Prof. Bahgat Korany

Director of Middle East Program

The American University in Cairo

Presenters:

General Anthony C. Zinni (USMC ret)
Former Commander, United States Central Command

Prof. Timothy Niblock

Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies

University of Exeter

                        Dr. Saleh Al-Mani

                        King Saud University

15:15                Discussion Period

16:00                Break

16:15                Session 2: Calculating the Costs of US Gulf Policy

Chairperson:

Prof. Anoush Ehteshami

Head, School of Government

University of Durham

United Kingdom

Presenters:

Mr. Robert Springborg

MBI Al Jaber Chair in Middle East Studies and

Director,

London Middle East Institute

United Kingdom

Ambassador (Ret.) Murat Bilhan

Lecturer

İstanbul Kultur University

Dr. Mustafa Alani

Senior Advisor

Program Director, Security and Terrorism Studies

Gulf Research Center, Dubai, UAE

17:00                Discussion Period

17:45                End of First Day Proceedings

Friday, January 12, 2007:

09:00               Session 3:  Scenarios of Failure and its Implications: Iraq and the Regional Environment

Chairperson:

Prof. Abdulkhaleq Abdullah

Professor of Political Science

UAE University

Presenters:

Prof. Abdullah Al-Shayeji

Associate Professor of International Relations and US Politics

Kuwait University

H.E. Amb Dr. Hossein Mousavian

Vice President, Advisor to the National Security Council

Center for Strategic Research, Expediency Council, Tehran, Iran

H.E. Saadoun Al-Dulaimi

Former Minister of Defense

Iraq

Prof. Yezid Sayigh

Professor of Middle East Studies

Department of War Studies

King’s College, University of London

10:00                Discussion Period

10:30                Break

10:45               Session 4: Scenarios of Failure and its Implications: The US and the International Environment

Chairperson:

Dr. Fred Tanner

Director

Geneva Center for Security Policy

Presenters:

Dr. A.K. Pasha

Former Chairperson, Centre for West Asian and African Studies

Jawaharlal Nehru University, India

                        Prof. Klaus Segbers

                        Prof. of Political Science, Institute for East European Research

                        Free University of Berlin, Germany

Dr. Andrei Zagorski

          Associated Professor

          MGIMO University, Moscow

Prof. Amin Saikal

Director, Centre for Arab & Islamic Studies

The Australian National University, Australia

11:45                Discussion Period

12:15                Concluding Remarks and End of Meeting